![]() There are many ways to sample a population, but there is one goal we need to keep in mind: we would like the sample to be representative of the population. So even identifying the population can be a difficult job, but once we have identified the population, how do we choose an appropriate sample? Remember, although we would prefer to survey all members of the population, this is usually impractical unless the population is very small, so we choose a sample. The polls did not deem these young people likely voters (since in most cases young people have a lower rate of voter registration and a turnout rate for elections) and so the polling samples were subject to sampling bias: they omitted a portion of the electorate that was weighted in favor of the winning candidate.Ī sampling method is biased if every member of the population doesn’t have equal likelihood of being in the sample. The mere fact that the polls showed Ventura had little chance of winning might have prompted some people to vote for him in protest to send a message to the major-party candidates.īut one of the major contributing factors was that Ventura recruited a substantial amount of support from young people, particularly college students, who had never voted before and who registered specifically to vote in the gubernatorial election.Many respondents to polls may have been embarrassed to tell pollsters that they were planning to vote for a professional wrestler.Ventura was running on a third-party ticket and most polling methods are better suited to a two-candidate race. ![]() There were several contributing factors to the polls not reflecting the actual intent of the electorate: Up until right before the election, most polls showed he had little chance of winning. In November 1998, former professional wrestler Jesse “The Body” Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota. This is the criteria used in much political polling, but it is sometimes difficult to define a “likely voter.” Is it someone who voted in the last election? In the last general election? In the last presidential election? Should we consider someone who just turned 18 a “likely voter?” They weren’t eligible to vote in the past, so how do we judge the likelihood that they will vote in the next election? What about registered voters? Many people are registered but choose not to vote. What about eligible voters in the district? That might be better, but if someone is eligible to vote but does not register by the deadline, they won’t have any say in the election either. What population should we study? Every person in the district? Not every person is eligible to vote, and regardless of how strongly someone likes or dislikes the candidate, they don’t have much to do with him being re-elected if they are not able to vote. Suppose we are hired by a politician to determine the amount of support he has among the electorate should he decide to run for another term. ![]() ![]() Determine whether an experiment may have been influenced by confounding.Identify the treatment in an experiment.Identify the differences between observational study and an experiment.Identify ineffective ways of obtaining a random sample from a population.Identify methods for obtaining a random sample of the intended population of a study. ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |